AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Aug 31, 2025

Alverca

Home
VS
17:00

Benfica

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Alverca Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Benfica Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 36%
Market 50%
Combined: 43% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.25 - 0.49
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.5
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Alverca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Benfica Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 0-0 (18%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Under 2.5 Goals 75%
Alverca Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 25 Alverca vs Estrela d… 2-2
Aug 17 Alverca vs SC Braga 0-3
Aug 10 Alverca vs Moreirense 2-1
Aug 02 Alverca vs Casa Pia … 2-3
Jul 19 Alverca vs Estoril 1-2
May 16 Alverca vs Portimone… 2-1
May 11 Alverca vs Tondela 1-2
May 04 Alverca vs Pacos Fer… 1-0
Apr 29 Alverca vs Chaves 0-2
Apr 20 Alverca vs Moreirense 4-0
Benfica Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 29 Benfica vs Panevėžys 0-0
Aug 27 Benfica vs Fenerbahce 1-0
Aug 23 Benfica vs Tondela 3-0
Aug 22 Benfica vs Tauras 0-2
Aug 20 Benfica vs Fenerbahce 0-0
Aug 16 Benfica vs Estrela d… 0-1
Aug 15 Benfica vs Neptūną K… 0-4
Aug 12 Benfica vs Nice 2-0
Aug 08 Benfica vs Babrungas… 4-0
Aug 06 Benfica vs Nice 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Alverca struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Alverca Power 0
Benfica Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Alverca Position

-7

Position Gap

3

Benfica Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 70%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.