AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Segunda División Aug 22, 2025

Castellón

Home
VS
19:30

Valladolid

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Castellón Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Valladolid Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 93%
Market 50%
Combined: 58% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 4.50 - 1.25
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.2 Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Castellón Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Valladolid Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%) 3-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-2 (4%) 2-0 (3%) 2-2 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Under 2.5 Goals 37%
Castellón Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 16 Castellón vs Santander 3-1
Aug 08 Castellón vs Levante 0-2
Aug 02 Castellón vs Huesca 1-1
May 30 Castellón vs Zaragoza 4-1
May 25 Castellón vs Granada 2-1
May 18 Castellón vs Eldense 1-1
May 10 Castellón vs Mirandes 3-2
May 05 Castellón vs Sp Gijon 4-3
Apr 27 Castellón vs Malaga 1-0
Apr 18 Castellón vs Almería 4-1
Valladolid Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 15 Valladolid vs AD Ceuta … 3-0
Aug 09 Valladolid vs Burgos 2-2
May 24 Valladolid vs Levante 3-0
May 18 Valladolid vs Alavés 0-1
May 13 Valladolid vs Girona 0-1
May 10 Valladolid vs Mallorca 2-1
May 03 Valladolid vs FC Barcel… 1-2
Apr 24 Valladolid vs Real Betis 5-1
Apr 20 Valladolid vs Osasuna 2-3
Apr 14 Valladolid vs Real Madr… 4-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Valladolid struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

ELITE: Castellón to win (93% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0 93% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 15
Castellón Power 41
Valladolid Power 34
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Castellón Position

+15

Position Gap

17

Valladolid Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.