AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
La Liga Sep 27, 2025

Atlético Madrid

Home
VS
14:15

Real Madrid

Away
AI Predictions 41.2% Confidence
Atlético Madrid Win
31.0%
Draw
27.8%
Real Madrid Win
41.2%
Away Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 35%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 36% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 1.06 - 2.07
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Atlético Madrid Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Real Madrid Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2 (10%) 1-1 (10%) 0-2 (9%) 0-1 (9%) 1-3 (7%) 0-3 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Atlético Madrid Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 24 Atlético … vs Rayo Vall… 3-2
Sep 21 Atlético … vs Mallorca 1-1
Sep 17 Atlético … vs Liverpool 3-2
Sep 13 Atlético … vs Villarreal 2-0
Aug 30 Atlético … vs Alavés 1-1
Aug 23 Atlético … vs Elche 1-1
Aug 17 Atlético … vs Espanyol 2-1
Aug 09 Atlético … vs Newcastle… 0-2
May 25 Atlético … vs Girona 0-4
May 18 Atlético … vs Real Betis 4-1
Real Madrid Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 Real Madr… vs Levante 1-4
Sep 20 Real Madr… vs Espanyol 2-0
Sep 16 Real Madr… vs Marseille 2-1
Sep 13 Real Madr… vs Real Soci… 1-2
Aug 30 Real Madr… vs Mallorca 2-1
Aug 24 Real Madr… vs Oviedo 0-3
Aug 19 Real Madr… vs Osasuna 1-0
Aug 12 Real Madr… vs WSG Watte… 0-4
May 25 Real Madr… vs Girona 0-4
May 24 Real Madr… vs Real Soci… 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Real Madrid in strong form (5W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 12, 2025 Atlético Madrid 1 - 0 Real Madrid UEFA Champions…
Mar 04, 2025 Real Madrid 2 - 1 Atlético Madrid UEFA Champions…
Feb 08, 2025 Real Madrid 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid La Liga
Sep 29, 2024 Atlético Madrid 1 - 1 Real Madrid La Liga
Feb 04, 2024 Real Madrid 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid La Liga
Jan 18, 2024 Atlético Madrid 4 - 2 Real Madrid Copa del Rey
Jan 10, 2024 Real Madrid 5 - 3 Atlético Madrid Super Cup
Sep 24, 2023 Atlético Madrid 3 - 1 Real Madrid La Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Atlético Madrid to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Atlético Madrid Power 45
Real Madrid Power 49
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Atlético Madrid Position

-1

Position Gap

2

Real Madrid Position
Home Win Rate: 91%
Away Win Rate: 64%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.